International climate cooperation under strain: How middle powers can bridge geopolitical divides

Date: Wednesday 1 April
Time: 5:00–6:00 pm
Location: AM101, Alan MacDiarmid Building, Kelburn Campus [map link]
Register: ChinaCentre@vuw.ac.nz

Abstract In an era of intensifying geopolitical rivalry, maintaining international cooperation on climate change is becoming both more difficult. The return of the Trump-led U.S. administration has reshaped the global climate landscape: weakening multilateral climate commitments under the UNFCCC, undermining trust in climate science and the IPCC, and reinforcing fossil fuel expansion amid widening conflict in the Middle East. New geopolitical flashpoints around oil and gas risk locking countries into expensive shortterm fossil fuel dependencies. Yet this fragmentation is not the whole story. China’s role as a dominant supplier of clean technologies (from solar PV to batteries and electric vehicles) positions it as a key actor in global decarbonisation, even amid economic competition with Western economies. This raises critical questions:

• How can middle powers (such as the EU, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia and others) navigate between competing blocs to sustain climate ambition and decarbonisation?
• What forms of cooperation with China are possible to accelerate clean energy transitions, particularly in the Global South, where investment gaps remain stark?
• Is cooperation with US sub-national actors at the city level to maintain climate action still possible?
• Can pragmatic coalitions beyond traditional power centres serve as critical bridges—mobilising finance, enabling technology partnerships, and sustaining momentum at a time when great power politics threatens to derail climate progress?

Patrick Schröeder is Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Society Centre at Chatham House. He is an international sustainability expert specializing in climate change, resource governance, the circular economy, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). He works at the intersection of science, policy, and media to advance evidence-based policies, communicate complex sustainability issues, and promote equitable governance solutions at the multilateral level. He is a Coordinating Lead Author for the IPCC Assessment Report 7 (WG III – Mitigation), Coordinating Lead Author for the UN Global Environment Outlook 7, and a member of the International Science Council Expert Group on Plastic Pollution.