Prasad Shelke

Contact

Phone: 04 463 5233 ext. 8619
Email: Prasad.Shelke@vuw.ac.nz
Office: CO220

Qualifications

BE Savitribai Phule Pune University (2016); MTech Savitribai Phule Pune University (2019)
PhD Candidate in Atmospheric Science

PhD thesis

Title

Tipping the scales: The butterfly effect in Atmospheric Blocking and Temperature Extremes

Supervisors

• Prof. James Renwick
• Dr Stefan Jendersie

Project objectives and description

The sensitivity of our climate system to tiny perturbations is known as internal climate variability. This is also called the butterfly effect. This inherent uncertainty often appears in future climate projections. Consequently, future adaptation and mitigation risks are often misjudged.

My research is focused on assessing the uncertainty in future climate projections caused by internal climate variability. I mainly study atmospheric blocking patterns and related weather extremes. Atmospheric blocking patterns are characterised as persistent anticyclones that decelerate the movement of weather systems. Accurately representing these patterns in weather and climate models has been a long-term challenge.

For my dissertation, I aim to quantify the role of internal variability in reproducing global blocking patterns and their associated impacts (temperature extremes) using climate model ensembles. I aim to produce global confidence maps for future projections of blocking patterns and associated extremes as an outcome of my dissertation. These maps can help in adapting to risks related to climate extremes and their precursors such as blocking. Besides the global outlook, I am studying the polar jet stream dynamics, mainly the changing response of different surfaces (land, ocean, ice) over the Arctic and Antarctica.

Publications

TBC