How NZ should handle nuclear weapons ‘turning point’

by Sam Sachdeva

Among the justifications for their military strikes against Iran, the United States and Israel have argued the Tehran regime was on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon.

US President Donald Trump argued in the wake of the attack that the country was two weeks away from securing such capabilities, a claim that has not been accompanied by clear evidence.

Although the US argues it has struck a crucial blow against a hostile state’s budding nuclear arsenal, one foreign policy expert believes Asia is reaching a less desirable turning point, with such weapons becoming more rather than less accessible – with New Zealand needing to prepare for such a world.

Speaking at a Centre for Strategic Studies conference* on Tuesday, the Asia New Zealand Foundation’s research and engagement director Dr Julia Macdonald said the path to disarmament seemed more difficult than ever, with China and North Korea engaged in “a rapid and largely unconstrained expansion of nuclear capabilities”.

Beijing had more than doubled its stockpile of nuclear weapons, to 600 warheads, and was forecast to reach as many as 1500 by the mid-2030s. The country also seemed to be moving from a position of minimum deterrence to a “second strike capability” (the ability to respond to a nuclear attack with one of its own), and to be able to use the threat of nuclear weapons to coerce other countries in the region.

North Korea’s nuclear force had also rapidly expanded, including test launches of intercontinental missiles capable of striking the United States and reaching far into the South Pacific.

“The US-Israeli strikes in Iran are probably just reinforcing Kim Jong Un’s view that he made the right call to develop his nuclear weapons as quickly as possible, because now he has a secure deterrent to US strikes,” Macdonald said.

“The lessons learned from some of these efforts to stop proliferation in one theatre may be teaching the wrong lessons to other states in other parts of the world.”

Another concern was the expiry of the New Start Treaty last month, which meant there were now no legally binding constraints on the nuclear weapons held by the United States and Russia – the world’s two largest nuclear powers, in possession of 87 percent of the world’s arsenal.

Anxiety about the Trump administration’s behaviour and reliability was leading some countries to consider acquiring their own weapons. Surveys showed as many as 77 percent of South Koreans supported developing their own nuclear weapons – although such a move was unlikely.

Macdonald said it was difficult for New Zealand politicians to talk about growing nuclear threats, given the country’s long nuclear-free identity.

However, the country could encourage the development of new nuclear disarmament agreements with “flexible, asymmetric limits” that acknowledged China’s build-up and its need to be involved in such discussions.

“The glimmer of optimism is that this is a moment to revisit the agreements, right? But we’re not in a bilateral world any more … this is a moment where we can take stock of the world as it is and try to come up with a new, more imaginative, creative agenda.”

Speaking earlier in the day, Defence Minister Judith Collins said the world was “more connected yet more contested than at any other point in my lifetime”, with military developments in both the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific reverberating in the other direction.

Collins cited North Korea’s support for Russia in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, as well as the use of the ‘shadow fleet’ to avoid sanctions imposed against Moscow and its supporters.

New Zealand was also facing increased threats in its maritime area, such as the Chinese naval task group that navigated through the Tasman Sea last year.

* The author chaired a panel at the conference in a voluntary capacity

The article was first published on Newsroom.