Southeast Asia at the Geostrategic Crossroads: the Iran War, Trump's Tariffs, the South China Sea and Beyond

On 14 May 2026, CSS hosted Prof Thitinan Pongsudhirak for a lecture on Southeast Asian countries’ strategic calculations and wider implications.

As the world order fragments, Southeast Asia finds itself at a critical point. The return of President Trump to the White House — with its sweeping tariff agenda and transactional approach to alliances — has reinforced the need for Southeast Asian countries to adopt a more assertive foreign policy to defend their economic interests and long-term security and prosperity. The Iran conflict reshaped energy markets and Southeast Asian countries’ strategic calculations. Meanwhile, the South China Sea grows more contested at the Geostrategic Crossroads. The lecture explored these converging pressures and asked what they mean not only for Southeast Asia, but for New Zealand and the wider Indo-Pacific.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak  is Professor of International Relations at Chulalongkorn University and Senior Fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS) in Bangkok.He has authored a host of articles, books and book chapters on Thailand’s politics, political economy, foreign policy, and media as well as ASEAN and East Asian security and economic cooperation. He received his BA from the University of California at Santa Barbara, MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and PhD from the London School of Economics where his work on the political economy of the 1997 Thai economic crisis was awarded the United Kingdom’s Lord Bryce Prize for Best Dissertation in Comparative and International Politics.

Chair: Professor David Capie, Director, Centre for Strategic Studies

Watch the full recording below.