That’s a scenario that PhD candidate Michael Miller (Ngāti Tuwharetoa), is using mathematical modelling to determine the feasibility of, while also considering historical obstacles that have slowed potential progress.
His research project is based at the School of Information Management at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, with funding by Te Pūnaha Matatini, a national centre of research excellence. It follows up on the goal set by the New Zealand Government in 2018 to have one million Māori language speakers by 2040.
That date is significant, being the bicentenary of the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi.
“However, there has been no in-depth analysis on whether achieving this goal is a reliable indicator that the language is on the trajectory to revitalisation,” he says.
The impact of policies and interventions that may have interrupted this trajectory are also part of his research, which uses a dynamical systems model to measure the current number of te reo speakers at different levels of proficiency, making future projections based on this.
“For example, at this stage I’m focusing on the inter-generational transmission of the Māori language and what might affect that, i.e. if the mother and father speak te reo at home, how that affects the likelihood the child will grow up with a grasp of the language.”
The effect of at least two generations of active discouragement of spoken te reo Māori in mid 20th-century New Zealand by Māori and Pākehā alike will be explored too, alongside the current political climate, which has seen a move away from the promotion of te reo and tikanga Māori.
“There has been little analysis on the effectiveness of these numerous interventions, or what impact they will have on achieving the Government’s goal or realising the long-term survival of the language.”
Alongside five-yearly census information, which in 2023 showed 4.3 percent of New Zealanders could hold a conversation in te reo, Michael has also extracted data from the biennial general social survey, a self-reporting tool that gathers information using New Zealand-related questions. In 2021, it showed that 7.9 percent of people spoke te reo ‘at least fairly well’. Now subcontracted out, it was previously run by Statistics New Zealand which since 2013 has also held a five-yearly Te Kupenga survey with questions specifically related to te reo and tikanga.
Many of these self-reported surveys ask to judge your own proficiency speaking te reo, using a scale from one to five from ‘no more than a few words and phrases’ up to ‘very well’.
Still only partway through his research, Michael can already see some trends emerging.
The modelling shows encouraging growth in New Zealanders using basic te reo, though the number of fluent speakers doesn’t seem to be growing at the same rate. However, overall interest in taking up the language remained strong.
“Over the past decade there’s been a huge increase in the number of adults enrolling in Māori language courses.”
His research also looked at other generational differences, with frequent comparisons drawn with the Welsh language where there has been an active revitalisation.
Michael’s own te reo journey is still in its early stages, but helped motivate him to pursue a research project of this kind.
“I come from an education and maths background, and I was really interested in applying my maths modelling to a social science issue that related to education.”
Michael engaged a mix of mātauranga Māori, mathematics, socio-linguistics, and computer science supervisors to advise on his project. He is also part of the team of the Chair in Complexity Science at Te Herenga Waka, which advances and uses modelling and analytical tools toward better understanding and improving life in Aotearoa via projects such as his te reo modelling research.
“Once it’s all done, we’ll hopefully have some idea firstly about whether revitalisation strategies with the language will be effective, and hopefully that will inform policy makers. I also hope this research will open the door to more mathematical modelling of Indigenous languages and be applied to other languages,” he says.
“But the goal here is to use this data with some mathematical equations to try and predict how many te reo speakers we will have by 2040.”
And is an increase possible?
“It looks like there will be more people at that basic level of proficiency.”