MATH 177Probability and Decision Modelling
Heads or tails? That's fair, right? Is the coin fair though - and how could you check? How might you choose in a more complicated situation? This course gives you an introduction to probability models in Statistics and their use in good decision making. Concepts you will study include probability, random variables and their distributions, decision theory, model estimation using sampled data, and tests for checking fitted models. Bad decisions follow from badly-fitting models. This course is needed for a mathematical pathway in Statistics, and for Actuarial Science. To make good decisions using probability, choose this course!
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Course details
- Dates
- 7 Jul 2025 to 9 Nov 2025
- Starts
- Trimester 2
- Fees
- NZ$899.40 for
- International fees
- NZ$4,771.80
- Lecture start times
- Monday 10.00am
- Tuesday 10.00am
- Thursday 10.00am
- Campus
- Kelburn
- Estimated workload
- Approximately 150 hours or 8.8 hours per week for 17 weeks
- Points
- 15
Entry restrictions
Taught by
School of Mathematics and Statistics—Faculty of Engineering
About this course
MATH 177 provides an introduction to probability models in statistics and their use in good decision-making. Key concepts include probability, random variables and their distributions, decision theory, and model estimation using sampled data. Goodness of fit tests are used to check the validity of fitted models.
Course learning objectives
Students who pass this course should be able to:
Demonstrate an understanding of elementary probabilistic or statistical models.
Formulate, solve and interpret simple probability models in a variety of applications.
Make decisions that demonstrate an understanding of the need tomodel and allow for uncertainty in decision problems.
Understand the power, utility and generality of model-based approaches to real situations.
Use goodness of fit tests to critically assess the validity of fitted models.
How this course is taught
During the trimester, there will be three lectures per week. Students are strongly encouraged to attend a tutorial each week (starting in week two).
We’ve designed this course for in-person study, and to get the most of out it we strongly recommend you attend lectures on campus. In particular, tests and non-lecture classes (tutorials) will only be available in person. Any exceptions for in-person attendance for assessment will be looked at on a case-by-case basis in exceptional circumstances, e.g., through disability services or by approval from the course coordinator.
Assessment
- 6 Assignments (best 5 out of 6) Mark: 30%
- Test 1 Mark: 30%
- Test 2 Mark: 40%
Assessment dates and extensions
Once you've signed up to this course, you can use to see due dates for assessments and information about extensions.
Mandatory requirements
Find out what you must do to pass this course.
In addition to achieving an overall pass mark of at least 50% students must:
- Achieve an average mark of at least 40% over the two tests.
If you believe that exceptional circumstances may prevent you from meeting the mandatory course requirements, contact the course coordinator for advice as soon as possible.
Lecture times and rooms
What you’ll need to get
You do not need to get any texts or equipment for this course.
Who to contact
Selected offering
MATH 177
7 Jul–9 Nov 2025
Trimester 2 · CRN 19803