Marvellous modelling

A new model, developed by PhD student Dan Lowry, could help to more accurately predict how Antarctica’s ice sheets will respond to a warming world.

Dan, who’s completing his research at the Antarctic Research Centre, says the purpose of his research is to determine how stable the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is in a warming world to help project future sea-level rise.

“Our main findings are that ocean and atmosphere warming are the primary controls on the major glacial retreat that took place in the Ross Embayment since the last ice age.

“But significantly, our modelling showed that the dominance of these two controls in influencing the ice sheet was different at different times, with melting from underneath the Ross Ice Shelf due to ocean warming becoming the main driver of ice sheet retreat over time,” he says.

The model works by simulating the physics of the ice sheet and its response to changes in ocean and atmosphere temperatures. The simulations are then compared to geological records and tested against past scenarios to check its accuracy.

“This all goes back to the question of sea-level rise and how the processes, that have affected the Antarctic Ice Sheet through its history, will continue to affect global sea level. The past really is the key to the future,” he says.

“Ultimately, these integrated projections of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic ice sheet will help policymakers and communities to develop meaningful adaptation strategies for cities and coastal infrastructure exposed to the risk of rising seas.”

Dan Lowry's PhD work is funded from the Royal Society Te Apārangi Marsden Fund through Victoria University of Wellington and the Antarctica New Zealand Doctoral Scholarship program. Once he completes his PhD, he will start a postdoctoral fellowship at GNS Science.