Academic publications
Access published research from the Chair in Public Finance.
2021
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2021) Illustrating income mobility and poverty persistence. Australian Economic Review. Forthcoming.
Gemmell, N. (2021) What is happening to tax policy in New Zealand and is it sensible? Policy Quarterly, 17, 3, 61-69.
Alinaghi, N., Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2021) Designing personal income tax reforms: alternative modelling approaches. Australian Economic Review, 54, 4, 445-461.
Alinaghi, N., Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2021) Elasticities of taxable income and adjustment costs: bunching evidence from New Zealand. Oxford Economic Papers, 73, 3, 1244-1269.
Alinaghi, N., Cabral, A.C.G. and Gemmell, N. (2021) Are survey-based self-employment income underreporting estimates biased? New evidence from matched register and survey data. International Tax and Public Finance, 28, 2, 284-322.
Creedy, J., Gemmell, N. and Laws, A. (2021) Relative income dynamics of individuals in New Zealand. New Zealand Economic Papers, 55, 2, 203-220.
2020
Alinaghi, N. and Reed, W.R. (2020) Taxes and economic growth in OECD countries: a meta-analysis. Public Finance Review, 49, 1, 3-40.
Alinaghi, N., Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2020) The redistributive effects of a minimum wage increase in New Zealand. Australian Economic Review, 53, 4, 517-538.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2020) The elasticity of taxable income of individuals in couples. International Tax and Public Finance, 27, 931-950.
Creedy, J., Gemmell, N., Herault, N. and Mok, P. (2020) Microsimulation analysis of optimal income tax reforms. An application to New Zealand. International Tax and Public Finance, 27, 409-434.
2019
Alinaghi, N. (2019) Mobile money, risk sharing, and transaction costs: a replication study of evidence from Kenya’s mobile money revolution. Journal of Development Effectiveness, 11, 4, 342–359.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2019) Income inequality in New Zealand: why conventional estimates are misleading. Agenda—A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, 26, 1, 5–22.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2019) Illustrating income mobility: new measures. Oxford Economic Papers, 71, 3, 733–755.
Gemmell, N., Gill, D. and Nguyen, L. (2019) Modelling public expenditure growth in New Zealand, 1972–2015. New Zealand Economic Papers, 53, 3, 215–244.
Gemmell, N., Grimes, A. and Skidmore, M. (2019) Do local property taxes affect new building development? Results from a quasi–natural experiment in New Zealand. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 58, 2, 310-333.
2018
Gemmell, N. and Ratto, M. (2018) The effects of penalty information on tax compliance: evidence from a New Zealand field experiment. National Tax Journal, 71, 3, 547-588.
Gemmell, N., Nolan, P. and Scobie, G. (2018) Quality adjusting education sector productivity. Policy Quarterly, 14, 3, 46-51.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2018) Long–term changes in income inequality in New Zealand. Australian Tax Policy Blog.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2018) Income dynamics, pro–poor mobility and poverty persistence curves. Economic Record, 94, 306, 316–328.
Creedy, J., Gemmell, N. and Nguyen, L. (2018) Income inequality in New Zealand, 1935–2014. Australian Economic Review, 51, 1, 21–40.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2018) Income effects and the elasticity of taxable income. New Zealand Economic Papers, 52, 2, 185-203.
Gemmell, N., Kneller, R., McGowan, D., Sanz, I. and Sanz–Sanz, J. (2018) Corporate taxation and productivity catch–up: evidence from European firms. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 120, 2, 372-399.
2017
Gemmell, N. (2017) Reforms to New Zealand superannuation eligibility: are they a good idea? Policy Quarterly, 13, 2, 35–39.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2017) Effective tax rates and the user cost of capital when interest rates are low. Economics Letters, 156, 82–87.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2017) Taxation and the user cost of capital, Journal of Economic Surveys, 31, 1, 201–225.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2017) Measuring revenue–maximising elasticities of taxable income: evidence for the US income tax, Public Finance Review, 45, 2, 174-204.
2016
Aziz, O., Gemmell, N. and Laws, A. (2016) The distribution of income and fiscal incidence by age and gender: some evidence from New Zealand. Review of Income and Wealth, 62, 3, 534–558.
Gemmell, N., Kneller, R. and Sanz, I. (2016) Does the composition of government expenditure matter for long–run GDP levels? Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, 78, 4, 522–547.
Gemmell, N. and Gill, D. (2016) The myth of the shrinking state? What does the data show about the size of the state in New Zealand, Policy Quarterly, 12, 3, 3–10.
2015
Carey, S., Creedy, J., Gemmell, N. and Teng, J. (2015) Estimating the elasticity of taxable income in New Zealand, Economic Record, 91, 292, 54–78.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2015) Revenue–maximising tax rates and elasticities of taxable income in New Zealand, New Zealand Economic Papers, 49, 2, 189-206.
Creedy, J., Gemmell, N. and Scobie, G. (2015) Pensions, saving and housing: a life–cycle framework with policy simulations, Economic Modelling, 46, 346–357.
Gemmell, N., Kneller, R. and Sanz, I. (2015) The growth effects of tax rates in the OECD, Canadian Journal of Economics, 47, 4, 1-39.
Gemmell, N. and Morrissey, O. (2015), Distribution and poverty impacts of tax structure reform in developing countries: how little we know, Chapter 16 in J. Alm and J. Martinez–Vazquez (eds) Tax Reform in Developing Countries , Volume 1. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
2014
Gemmell, N., Kneller, R. and Misch, F. (2014) Using surveys of business perceptions as a guide to growth–enhancing fiscal reforms, Economics of Transition, 22, 4, 683–4725.
Gemmell, N. and Hasseldine, J. (2014) Taxpayers' behavioural responses and measures of tax compliance gaps: a critique and a new measure, Fiscal Studies, 35, 3, 275–296.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2014) Can fiscal drag pay for the public spending effects of the population aging in New Zealand, New Zealand Economic Papers, 48, 2, 169–182.
2013
Gemmell, N., Kneller, R. and Sanz, I. (2013) Fiscal decentralization and economic growth: spending versus revenue decentralization, Economic Inquiry, 51, 4, 1915–1931.
Gemmell, N. and Au, J. (2013) Do smaller governments raise the level or growth of output? a review of recent evidence, Review of Economics, 64, 2, 85–116.
Gemmell, N. and Au, J. (2013) Government size, fiscal policy and the level and growth of output: a review of recent evidence, Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 18, 2, 203-229.
Misch, F., Gemmell, N. and Kneller, R. (2013) Growth and welfare maximization in models of public finance and endogenous growth, Journal of Public Economic Theory, 15, 6, 939–967.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2013) Measuring revenue responses to tax rate changes in multi–rate income tax systems: behavioural and structural factors, International Tax and Public Finance. 20, 6, 974-991.
2012
Gemmell, N., Misch, F. and Moreno–Dodson, B. (2012) Public spending for long–run growth: a practitioner's view, World Bank Economic Premise, 99, 1–4.
Gemmell, N. and Hasseldine, J. (2012) The tax gap: a methodological review, Advances in Taxation, 20, 203–231.
Gemmell, N. and Ratto, M. (2012) Behavioural responses to taxpayer audits: evidence from random enquiries of UK self–assessed taxpayers, National Tax Journal, 65, 1, 33-58.
Books and book chapters
2012
Gemmell, N., Misch, F. and Moreno–Dodson, B. (2012) Public spending and long–run growth in practice: concepts, tools, and evidence, Chapter 2 in B. Moreno–Dodson (ed.) Is Fiscal Policy the Answer? A Developing Country Perspective, Washington, DC: World Bank. 69–108. Available at scribd.
Conference & seminar presentations/papers
2021
Alinaghi, N., Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. Income inequality and mobility in New Zealand: evidence from administrative data. Presentation to the New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 23-24 June 2021.
2020
Alinaghi, N., Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. Do couples bunch more? Evidence from single and partnered taxpayers. Presentation to the 61st New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, 23 June 2020
2019
Alinaghi, N., Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. Elasticities of taxable income for couples and NZ bunching estimates. Chair in Public Finance Research Day, Victoria Business School, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 4 November 2019.
Creedy, J. and Ball, C. An introduction to TaxSimNZ. Chair in Public Finance Research Day, Victoria Business School, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 4 November 2019.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. Illustrating income mobility: two new measures. 75th Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance, Glasgow, UK, 21–23 August 2019.
Cabral, A.C.G. and Gemmell, N. Are survey–based self–employment income under–reporting estimates biased? New evidence from register and survey data. 75th Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance, Glasgow, UK, 21–23 August 2019.
Alinaghi, N., Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. The redistributive effects of a minimum wage increase in New Zealand: a microsimulation analysis. New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 3–5 July 2019.
Creedy, J., Gemmell, N., Herault, N. and Mok, P. A microsimulation analysis of welfare improving income tax reforms for New Zealand. 7th Annual Conference of the Tax Administration Research Centre, University of Exeter, UK, 11–12 April 2019.
Alinaghi, N., Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. The redistributive effects of a minimum wage increase in New Zealand: a microsimulation analysis. Modelling Tax Policy and Compliance Workshop, Tax Administration Research Centre, University of Exeter, UK, 23 March 2019.
2018
Alinaghi, N., Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. The efficiency effects of redistribution via minimum wages versus the tax–transfer system. Presentation to the 59th New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, 27–29 June 2018.
Fraser, H., Gemmell, N. and Nolan, P. Measuring the diffusion of innovation among hospitals in new Zealand. Presentation to the 59th New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, 27–29 June 2018.
Gemmell, N., Nolan, P. and Scobie, G. Estimating quality–adjusted productivity in tertiary education: methods and evidence for New Zealand. Presentation to the 59th New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, 27–29 June 2018.
Cabral, A.C.G. and Gemmell, N. Estimating self–employment income gaps from survey and register data: evidence for New Zealand. Presentation to the 6th Annual Workshop of the Tax Administration Research Centre, University of Exeter, UK, 24 April 2018.
Cabral, A.C.G. and Gemmell, N. The effect of measurement error on estimates of self–employment income gaps using survey and register data. Presentation to the Public Economics Research Day, Victoria Business School, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 10 April 2018.
Creedy, J., Gemmell, N., Herault, N. and Mok, P. Welfare improving income tax reforms in New Zealand. Presentation to the Tax–Transfer Microsimulation Modelling Workshop, Victoria Business School, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 14 March 2018.
2017
Creedy, J., Gemmell, N. and Teng, J. Taxable income elasticities. Presentation to the Public Finance Research Day, Victoria Business School, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, 11 October 2017.
Gemmell, N. The effects of penalty information on tax compliance: evidence from a New Zealand field experiment. Presentation to the 5th Annual Workshop of the Tax Administration Research Centre, University of Exeter, UK, 22 April 2017.
2016
Gemmell, N. Types of income mobility: insights from TIM curves. Presentation to the New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Auckland University of Technology, 29 June – 1 July 2016.
Gemmell, N. The size and scope of the public sector in New Zealand. Presentation to the New Zealand Productivity Commission Roundtable, Wellington, 21 June 2016.
Gemmell, N. The elasticity of taxable income: allowing for income effects. Presentation to the 4th Annual Workshop of the Tax Administration Research Centre, University of Exeter, UK, 22 April 2016.
2015
Gemmell, N. Making value judgements in economics: inequality and redistribution. Presentation to the New Zealand Government Economics Network (GEN) Annual Conference, Wellington, 6 December 2015.
Gemmell, N. Inequality in New Zealand: how should we measure it? Presentation to the Victoria Business School Commerce Teachers Professional Development Day, Auckland, 2 December 2015.
Gemmell, N. The elasticity of taxable income in New Zealand. Evidence for personal taxpayers from unit record data. Presentation to the International Institute of Public Finance Annual Congress, Dublin, Ireland, 20-23 August 2015.
Gemmell, N. Taxpayers' responses to penalties: evidence from a taxpayer experiment in New Zealand. Presentation to The Shadow Economy Conference, Tax Administration Research Centre, University of Exeter, UK, 23-25 July 2015.
Gemmell, N. How do penalties affect taxpayer compliance? Evidence from a taxpayer experiment. Presentation to H.M. Revenue & Customs, London, UK, 15 July 2015.
2014
Gemmell, N. Estimating the elasticity of taxable income in New Zealand. Presentation to the Inaugural Workshop of the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Australian National University, Canberra, 20 November 2014.
Gemmell, N. Pensions, savings and housing: A life–cycle framework with policy simulations. Presentation to the CEPAR and CESifo Workshop: Pension Taxation, Population Ageing and Globalisation, Sydney, Australia, 17 to 18 November 2014.
Gemmell, N. The growth challenge: sustainable fiscal policy. Presentation to ANZSOG Annual Conference , Canberra, Australia, 5-7 August 2014.
Gemmell, N. Tax loss mechanisms: comments on Nussim and Tabbach. Presentation to the Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation Annual Summer Symposium, Oxford, UK, 24-27 June 2014.
Gemmell, N. Are prices high in New Zealand? If so, why? Presentation to the public and sponsored by the New Zealand Productivity Commission at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, 21 May 2014.
Gemmell, N. Explaining international differences in tradables and non-tradables prices. Presentation to New Zealand Productivity Commission Seminar, 6 May 2014.
Gemmell, N. (2014), Tax (non)-compliance research: a New Zealand perspective. Presentation to the Cash and Hidden Economy International Revenue Conference, Auckland, New Zealand, 7-11 April 2014.
Creedy, J., Gemmell, N. and Scobie, G. Pensions, saving and housing: a life-cycle framework with policy simulations. Presentation to Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Seminar Series, 2 April 2014.
Gemmell, N. Revenue–maximising estimates of the elasticity of taxable income: evidence for the US income tax. Presentation to the 2nd annual TARC workshop at University of Exeter Business School, Exeter, United Kingdom, 10-11 March 2014.
2013
Gemmell, N. The growth effects of tax rates in the OECD. Presentation to the International Institute of Public Finance Annual Congress, Taormina, Sicily, Italy, 22-25 August 2013.
Gemmell, N. Estimating effective tax rates and the user cost of capital in New Zealand. Presentation to the New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Wellington, 1-3 July 2013.
Laws, A. and Gemmell, N. The distribution of income and the incidence of tax and government spending across the life-cycle for males and females: some evidence from New Zealand. Presentation to the New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Wellington, 1-3 July 2013.
Gemmell, N. Could fiscal drag pay for the public spending effects of ageing? Presentation to the Treasury’s Long–Term Fiscal External Panel at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, March 2013.
Gemmell, N. Behavioural responses to taxes and measures of the tax gap. Presentation to Inland Revenue Department, Wellington, New Zealand, February 2013.
Gemmell, N. and Hasseldine, J. Issues in measuring and using direct tax gap estimates. Presentation to the Inaugural Conference of the Tax Administration Research Centre, University of Exeter, UK, 28-29 January 2013.
2012
Gemmell, N. The top tax rate in New Zealand. How high is too high? Presentation to the New Zealand Government Economics Network Annual Conference, Wellington, 14 December 2012.
Gemmell, N. Can tax rises pay for the public spending effects of ageing? Presentation to the New Zealand Treasury and Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, Affording Our Future Conference, VUW Business School, Wellington, 11-12 December 2012.
Gemmell, N. Some things social policy analysts should know about taxation. Presentation to Ministry of Social Development Seminar, 3 December 2012.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. (2012), Taxpayers’ behavioural responses and the Laffer effect. Presentation to the 11th Annual LAGV Conference on Public Economics, University of Marseilles, 18-20 June 2012.
Carey, S., Creedy, J., Gemmell, N. and Teng, J. Regression estimates of the elasticity of taxable income and the choice of instrument. Presentation to the New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference. Massey University, Palmerston North, 27-29 June 2012.
2011
Gemmell, N. Taxes, growth and fiscal stimulus. Keynote address presented at the Globalisation & Development Centre, Bond University, Australia and Economic Growth Centre, Nanyang Technical University, Singapore, First Annual Workshop on Economic and Policy Developments in East Asia, Gold Coast, Australia, October 2011.
Creedy, J. and Gemmell, N. Tax rates and revenue changes: behavioural and structural factors. Presentation to the New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Wellington, July 2011.
Bandyopadhyay, D., Barro, R., Couchman, J., Gemmell, N., Liao, G. and McAlister, F. Calculating average marginal tax rates for New Zealand, 1907–2009. Presentation to the New Zealand Association of Economists Annual Conference, Wellington, July 2011.
Misch, F., Gemmell, N. and Kneller, R. Growth and welfare maximisation in models of public finance and endogenous growth. Presentation to the New Zealand Macroeconomic dynamics Workshop, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics & Finance, Wellington, April 2011.
Older publications
View earlier publications (2011 and prior).