School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences Te Kura Tātai Aro Whenua

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Publications Dave Frame

Publications

Peer reviewed books, book chapters, books edited

Frame, D.J., & Hepburn, C. (2011). Emerging markets and climate change: Mexican standoff or low-carbon race? In Robert W. Han &Alistair Ulph (Eds.), Climate Change and Common Sense: Essays in Honour of Tom Schelling. UK: Oxford University Press

Frame D.J., & Allen, M. (2008). Climate Change and Global Risk. In N. Bostrom & M. Cirkovic (Eds.), Global Catastrophic Risks. UK: Oxford University Press.

Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J., Kettleborough, J.A., & Stainforth, D.A. (2006). Model error in weather and climate forecasting. In T. Palmer & R. Hagedorn (Eds.), Predictability in Weather and Climate. UK: Cambridge University Press.

Refereed journal articles

E. Hawkins  D. Frame  L. Harrington  M. Joshi A. King  M. Rojas  R. Sutton, 2020, Observed emergence of the climate change signal: from the familiar to the unknown, Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086259.

D. Frame, M. Wehner, I. Noy, S. Rosier, 2020, The Economic Costs of Hurricane Harvey Attributable to Climate Change, Climatic Change.

D. Frame, S. Rosier, I. Noy, L. Harrington, T. Carey-Smith, S. Sparrow, D. Stone, S. Dean, 2020, Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study

on damages from extreme rainfall and drought, Climatic Change.

W. Collins, D. Frame, J. Fuglestvedt, K. Shine, 2020, Stable climate metrics for emissions of short and long-lived species—combining steps and pulses, Environmental Research Letters, Volume 15, Number 2, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6039.

M. A. Hasan, D. Frame, R .Chapman, K. Archie, 2019, Emissions from the road transport sector of New Zealand: key drivers and challenges, Environmental Science and Pollution Research 26(23), pp. 23937-23957

M. Cain, J. Lynch, M. Allen, J. Fuglestvedt, D. Frame & A. Macey, 2019. Improved calculation of warming-equivalent emissions for short-lived climate pollutants. npj Clim Atmos Sci 2, 29. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0086-4

D. Frame, L. Harrington, J. Fuglestvedt, R. Millar, M. Joshi and S. Caney, 2019, Emissions and emergence: a new index comparing relative contributions to climate change with relative climatic consequences, Environmental Research Letters, Volume 14, Number 8, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab27fc.

L. Harrington, D. Frame, A. King and F. Otto, 2018, How Uneven Are Changes to Impact-Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5°C World and Beyond?, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 45, Issue 13, Pages 6672-6680

Allen, M. R., Shine, K. P., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Millar, R. J., Cain, M., Frame, D. J., & Macey, A. H. (2018). A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants under ambitious mitigation. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 1(1), 16. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0026-8

A. J. Challinor , W. N. Adger , T. G. Benton , D. Conway , M. Joshi , and D. Frame, 2018, Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2017.0301

L. J. Harrington, D. J. Frame, E. Hawkins and M. Joshi, 2017, Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming, Environmental Research Letters,

K. Haustein, M. R. Allen, P. M. Forster, F. E. L. Otto, D. M. Mitchell, H. D. Matthews and D. J. Frame, 2017, A real-time Global Warming Index, Nature Scientific Reports, accepted.

R. J. Millar, J. S. Fuglestvedt, P. Friedlingstein, J. Rogelj, M. J. Grubb, H. D. Matthews, R. B. Skeie, P. M. Forster, D. J. Frame and M. R. Allen, 2017, Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C, Nature Geoscience,

D. J. Frame, M. M. Joshi, E. Hawkins, L. J. Harrington and M. de Roiste, 2017, Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates, Nature Climate Change 7, 407–411, doi:10.1038/nclimate3297

Harrington, L. J., D. J. Frame, E. Fischer, E. Hawkins, M. Joshi and C. Jones, 2016: Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 11 (5), 055007.

J. Williams, O. Morgenstern, V. Varma, E. Behrens, W. Hayek, H. Oliver, S. Dean, B. Mullan, and D. Frame, 2016, Development of the New Zealand Earth System Model: NZESM, Weather and Climate Vol 36.

Otto, F.E.L., Frame, D.J., Otto, A., & Allen, M.R. (early on-line view). Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy. Nature Climate Change.

Frame, D.J., Macey A.H., & Allen, M.R. (2014). Cumulative emissions and climate policy. Nature Geoscience, 7, 692–693.

Hawkins, E., Joshi, M., & Frame, D.J. (2014). Wetter then drier in some tropical areas (letter to the Editor). Nature Climate Change, 4, 646–647.

Bowerman, N.H.A., Frame, D.J., Huntingford, C., Lowe, J.A., Smith, S.M., & Allen, M.R. (2013). The role of short-lived climate pollutants in meeting temperature goals. Nature Climate Change, 3, 1021–1024.

Otto, A., Todd, B.J., Bowerman, N., Frame, D.J., & Allen, M.R. (2013). Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 024032.

Frame, D.J., & Stone, D.A. (2012). Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change (Letter). Nature Climate Change, 3, 357–359.

Rowlands, D.J., Frame, D.J., Ackerley, D., Aina T., Booth, B.B.B., Christensen, C., ..., & Allen, M.R. (2012). Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Nature Geoscience, 5, 256-260

Joshi, M.M., Hawkins, E., Sutton, R.T., Lowe, J., & Frame, D.J. (2011). Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Nature Climate Change, 1, 407-412.

Bowerman, N.H.A., Frame, D.J., Huntingford, C., Lowe, J.A., & Allen, M.R. (2011). Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1934), 45-66.

Ackerley, D., Booth, B.B.B., Knight, S.H.E., Highwood, E.J., Frame, D.J., Allen, M.R., & Rowell, D.P. (2011). Sensitivity of twentieth-century Sahel rainfall to sulfate aerosol and CO2 forcing. Journal of Climate, 24, 4999–5014.

Boykoff, M. T., Frame, D.J., & Randalls, S. (2010). Discursive stability meets climate instability: A critical exploration of the concept of ‘climate stabilization’ in contemporary climate policy. Global Environmental Change, 20(1), 53-64.

Frame, D.J. (2010). The problems of markets: science, norms and the commodification of carbon. The Geographical Journal, 177(2), 138-148

Frame, D.J., & Hepburn, C. (2010). An issue of trust: state corruption, responsibility and greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental Research Letters, 5(1), 014004

Zickfeld, K., Morgan, M.G., Frame, D.J., & Keith, D.W. (2010). Expert judgments about transient climate response to alternative future trajectories of radiative forcing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, 107(28), 12451-12456.

Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J., & Mason, C.F. (2009). The case for mandatory sequestration. Nature Geoscience, 2, 813-814.

Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C.D., Lowe, J.A., Meinshausen, M. & Meinshausen, N. (2009). Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Nature, 458, 1163-1166.

Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S., Frieler, K., Knutti, R., Frame, D.J., & Allen, M.R. (2009). Greenhouse gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C. Nature, 458, 1158-1162.

Ackerley, D., Highwood, E.J., Frame, D.J., & Booth, B.B.B. (2009). Changes in the global sulfate burden due to perturbations in global CO2 concentrations. Journal of Climate, 22(20), 5421-5432.

Frame, D.J., Aina, T., Christensen, C.M., Faull, N.E., Knight, S.H.E., Piani, C., ..., & Allen, M.R. (2009). The climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 367(1890), 855-870.

Ackerley, D., Highwood, E.J. & Frame, D.J. (2009). Quantifying the effects of perturbing the physics of an interactive sulfur scheme using an ensemble of GCMs on the climateprediction.net platform. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114, D01203.

Knutti, R., Krahenmann, S., Frame, D.J., & Allen, M.R. (2008). Comment on ‘‘Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth’s climate system’’ by S. E. Schwartz. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D15103.

Allen, M.R., & Frame, D.J. (2007). Call off the quest. Science, 318(5850), 582-583.

Frame, D.J., Faull, N.E., Joshi, M.M., & Allen, M.R. (2007). Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365(1857), 1971-1992.

Knight, C.G., Knight, S.H.E., Massey, N., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Frame, D.J., ..., & Allen, M.R. (2007). Association of parameter, software and hardware variation with large scale behavior across 57,000 climate models. PNAS, 104(30), 12259-12264.

Allen, M., Pall, P., Stone, D., Stott, P., Frame, D.J., Min, S.-K., Nozawa, T. & Yukimoto, S. (2007). Scientific challenges in the attribution of harm to human influence on climate. University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 155(6), 1353-1400.

Piani, C., Sanderson, B., Giorgi, F., Frame, D.J., Christensen, C., & Allen, M.R. (2007). Regional probabilistic climate forecasts from a multi-thousand, multi-model ensemble of simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112, D24108.

Sanderson, B.M., Knutti, R., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Faull, N.E., Frame, D.J., ..., & Allen, M.R. (2007). Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the rose of sub-grid scale processes. Journal of Climate, 21(11), 2384-2400.

Frame, D.J., Stone, D.A., Stott, P.A., & Allen, M.R. (2006). Alternatives to stabilization scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L14707.

Hegerl, G.C., Crowley, T.J., Hyde, W.T., & Frame, D.J. (2006). Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature, 440, 1029-1032. See also the correspondence arising: Schneider, T. (2007). Climate modelling: Uncertainty in climate-sensitivity estimates. Nature, 446. and Hegerl, G.C., Crowley, T.J., Hyde, W.T., & Frame, D.J. (2007). Climate modelling: Uncertainty in climate-sensitivity estimates (Reply). Nature, 446(7131), E2.

Massey, N., Aina, T., Allen, M.R., Christensen, C., Frame, D.J., Goodman, D., ..., & Stainforth, D. (2006) Data access and analysis with distributed federated data servers in climateprediction.net. Advances in Geosciences, 8, 49-56.

Allen, M.R., Andronova, N., Booth, B.B.B., Dessai, S., Frame, D.J., Forest, C., ..., & Stainforth, D.A. (2006). Observational Constraints on climate sensitivity. In W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley & G. Yohe (Eds.), Avoiding dangerous climate change (Chapter 29). UK: Cambridge University Press.

Stainforth, D.A., Allen, M.R., Frame, D.J., & Piani, C. (2006). Risks Associated with Stabilisation Scenarios and Uncertainty in Regional and Global Climate Change Impacts. In W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley & G. Yohe (Eds.), Avoiding dangerous climate change (Chapter 33). UK: Cambridge University Press.

Frame, D.J., Booth, B.B.B., Kettleborough, J.A., Stainforth, D.A., Gregory, J.M., Collins, M., & Allen, M.R. (2005). Constraining climate forecasts: the role of prior assumptions. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L09702.

Piani, C., Frame, D.J., Stainforth, D.A., & Allen, M.R. (2005). Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophysical Review Letters, 32, L23825.

Stainforth, D.A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Frame, D.J., ..., & Allen, M.R. (2005). Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature, 433, 403-406, 2005.

Other forms of dissemination (reports for clients, technical reports, popular press, etc.)

Climate risks

L. Harrington and D. Frame, Northland drought a harbinger of dry future, https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/2020/03/02/1060239/northland-drought-op-ed

D. Frame, Understanding climate risks makes us all less vulnerable, https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/91558744/david-frame-understanding-climate-risks-makes-us-all-less-vulnerable

D. Frame, D. Matthews, Keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees: really hard, but not impossible, https://theconversation.com/keeping-global-warming-to-1-5-degrees-really-hard-but-not-impossible-84203

Climate policy

D. Frame, 15th-century Chinese sailors have a lesson for Trump about climate policy,  https://theconversation.com/15th-century-chinese-sailors-have-a-lesson-for-trump-about-climate-policy-78752

D. Frame, Climate change a slow burn issue, https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/2018/04/23/105602/climate-change-should-take-a-leaf-out-of-central-bank-book

D. Frame, International focus needed over climate, http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/our-future/7148556/International-focus-needed-over-climate

D. Frame, The Zero Carbon bill is a positive step, https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/112570682/the-zero-carbon-bill-is-a-positive-step

Sectoral climate policy

D. Frame and A. Macey, Two-basket approach no free ride for farmers, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=12228595

D. Frame, A Government with fingers in its ears, https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/2019/10/23/872366/a-government-with-fingers-in-its-ears

D. Frame, M. Allen, A. Macey, Here’s our chance to become climate leaders, https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/2018/06/05/112729/heres-our-chance-to-become-climate-leaders

D. Frame, Cutting methane doesn’t buy time for CO2, https://www.newsroom.co.nz/ideasroom/2018/10/19/280618/cutting-methane-doesnt-buy-time-for-co2

D. Frame, M. Allen, A. Macey, Why methane should be treated differently compared to long-lived greenhouse gases, https://theconversation.com/why-methane-should-be-treated-differently-compared-to-long-lived-greenhouse-gases-97845

Mastrandrea, M.D., Field, C.B., Stocker, T.F., Edenhofer, O., Ebi, K.L., Frame, D.J., ..., & Zwiers, F.W. (2010). Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).