Prof Viv Hall

Prof Viv Hall profile picture

Emeritus Professor School of Economics and Finance


Current research interests involve: (1) New Zealand, Australian and Pacific Rim business cycle analysis; (2) macroeconomic modelling and policy, with particular reference to monetary and fiscal policy, (3) growth and productivity analysis.


MCom (Hons) PhD Auck

Viv Hall's Curriculum Vitae

Recent research findings

  • For New Zealand's classical real GDP business cycles: 1947-2017.
  • Hall McDermott quarterly real GDP series: 1947-2017.
  • 'On trend robustness and end-point issues for New Zealand's stylised business cycle facts' (with Peter Thomson and Stuart McKelvie), SEF Working Paper 12/2014, December 2014.


  • 'On the robustness of stylised business cycle facts for contemporary New Zealand' (with Peter Thomson and Stuart Mckelvie), forthcoming in New Zealand Economic Papers.
  • 'Recessions and recoveries in New Zealand's post-Second World War business cycles' (with C. John McDermott), New Zealand Economic Papers, 50, 3 (2016), pp. 261-280.
  • 'New Zealand's macroeconomic imbalances - causes and remedies' (with John Janssen and Christie Smith), Special issue of New Zealand Economic Papers, 47, 1 (2013), pp. 1-110.
  • 'New Zealand's macroeconomic imbalances - causes and remedies: Guest editors' introduction' (with Christie Smith and John Janssen), New Zealand Economic Papers, 47, 1 (2013), pp. 1-7.
  • 'Is there an unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency' (with C John McDermott), New Zealand Economic Papers, 46, 2 (2012), pp. 119-141.
  • 'A quarterly post-second world war real GPD series for New Zealand' (with C John McDermott), New Zealand Economic Papers, 45, 3 (2011), pp. 273-298.
  • 'Unobserved components business cycles for New Zealand. What are they, and what might drive them?' (with C John McDermott), The Economic Record, 87, 277 (2011), pp. 294-317.
  • 'Business cycles', Te Ara-the Encyclopedia of New Zealand, updated 4 March 2010, url: http//
  • 'The New Zealand business cycle' (with C John McDermott), Econometric Theory, 25, 4 (2009), pp. 1050-1069.
  • 'Application of a dynamic panel data estimator to cross-country coffee demand: A tale of two eras' (with Michael S Webb), Journal of Economic Development, 34, 1 (2009), pp. 1-17.
  • 'Regional business cycles in New Zealand. Do they exist? What might drive them?' (with C John McDermott), Papers in Regional Science, 86, 2 (2007), pp. 167-191.
  • 'Bryan Passmore Philpott (1921-2000)', (with Lewis T Evans), in J.E. King (ed.), A Biographical Dictionary of Australian and New Zealand Economists (Edward Elgar, 2007), pp. 220-221.
  • 'Jan Louise Whitwell (1944-1993)', (with Lewis T Evans), in J.E. King (ed.), A Biographical Dictionary of Australian and New Zealand Economists (Edward Elgar, 2007), pp. 309-310.
  • 'Consumption-smoothing in a small, cyclically volatile open economy: Evidence from New Zealand' (with Kunhong Kim and Robert A Buckle), Journal of International Money and Finance, 25 (2006), pp. 1277-1295.
  • 'Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand' (with Aaron Drew, C John McDermott and Robert St Clair), Economic Modelling, 21, 6 (2004), pp. 949-964.
  • 'Early development of econometric software at the University of Auckland' (with Peter C B Phillips), Journal of Economic and Social Measure, 29, 1-3 (2004), pp. 127-133. Special Volume on Computational Econometrics: Its Impact on the Development of Quantitative Economics, edited by Charles G Renfro.
  • 'Would dopting the US dollar have led to improved inflation, output and trade balances, for New Zealand in the 1900s?' (with Angela Huang), New Zealand Economic Papers, 38, 1 (2004), pp.49-63.
  • Comments on 'Monetary Rules when Economic Behaviour Changes', by Robert Amano, Don Coletti and Tiff Macklem, in Benjamin Hunt and Adrian Orr (eds.) Monetary Policy under Uncertainty (Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 1999), pp. 201-203.
  • 'Reform and experience in New Zealand', Chapter 2 in Structural Reform in Open Economics: A Road to Success?, Peter A G van Bergeijk, Jarig van Sinderen and Ben A Vollaard (eds.), (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 1999), pp. 17-43.
  • 'Fiscal Expansion, monetary policy, interest rate risk premia, and wage reactions' (with David Rae), Economic Modelling, 15 (1998), pp. 621-640.
  • 'Pacific rim business cycle analysis: Synchronisation and volatility' (with Kunhong Kim and Robert A. Buckle), New Zealand Economic Papers, 32, 2 (1998), pp. 129-159.
  • 'Economic growth', Chapter 2 in A Study of Economic Reform: The Case of New Zealand, Brian Silverstone, Alan Bollard and Ralph Lattimore (eds), (North Holland: Amsterdam, 1996), pp. 31-71.
  • 'New Zealand's economic growth: Fantastic, feeble, or further progress needed?', Victoria Economic Commentaries, 13, 1 (1996), pp. 3-13.
  • 'Dating New Zealand business cycles' (with Kunhong Kim and Robert A Buckle), New Zealand Economic Papers, 29, 2 (1995), pp. 143-171.
  • 'Trans-Tasman CGE Modelling: Some illustrative results from the JOANI model' (with G Nana and B P Philpott), Economic Modelling, 12, 4 (1995), pp. 377-389.
  • 'A comparison of the major sectoral results from the G-Cubed, MM-Sectoral, Monash and Salter models following a rise in labour productivity of 5% over five years', in C Hargreaves (ed.), A Comparison of Economy-Wide Models of Australia, Canberra: Economic Planning Advisory Commission (1994), pp. 41-62.
  • 'Key features of New Zealand business cycles' (with Kunhong Kim and Robert A Buckle), The Economic Record, 70, 208 (1994), pp. 56-72.
  • 'Long run equilibrium estimation and inference: A non-parametric application' (with R G Trevor), in Models, Methods, and Applications in Econometrics: Essays in Honour of A.R Bergstrom, P C B Phillips (ed.), Chapter 24 (Blackwell, Cambridge MA and Oxford UK, 1993), pp. 383-402.
  • 'Some thoughts on the sustainability of economic growth', an inaugural address presented to Victoria University of Wellington on 1 June 1993: published in abridged form in Victoria Economic Commentaries, 10, 2 (1993), pp. 7-26.
  • 'Long run concepts in New Zealand macroeconomic and CGE models' in Macroeconomic Modelling of the Long Run, C Hargreaves (ed.), Chapter 4 (London: Edward Elgar, 1992), pp. 95-117.
  • 'An Australian fuel substitution tax model: ORANI-LFT' (with TP Truong and VA Nguyen), Energy Economics, 12, 4 (1990), pp. 255-268.
  • 'Responses to world oil and coal shocks, in a short run fuel substitution tax model' (with T P Truong and V A Nguyen), The Australian Economic Review, 3 (1989), pp. 25-38.
  • 'Design of the NIF88 model: Comment', Australian Economic Papers, Supplementory Conference Volume on Macroeconomic Modelling in Australia, 27 (1988 Supp.), pp. 171-174.
  • 'Is medium temperature solar thermal process steam viable for Australia? Some preliminary results' (with D R Mills), Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, 2, 2 (1988), pp. 26-40.
  • 'A model of output, employment, capital formation and inflation' (with R W Bailey and P C B Phillips), in G Gandolfo and F Marzano (eds), Keynesian Theory, Planning Models, and Quantitative Methods: Essays, in memory of Vittorio Marrama, Milano:Giuffrè, Vol II (1987), pp. 703-767.
  • 'A Perspective on Energy Modelling in Australia', in M Mihata and K Mitsui (eds), Energy Decisions for the Future: Challenge and Opportunities, Tokyo: IAEE, and Institute for Energy Economics (1986), pp. 953-969.
  • 'Industrial Sector Fuel Price Elasticities of Demand Following the First and Second Major Oil Shocks', Economic Letters, 20 (1986), pp. 79-82.
  • 'Major OECD Country Industrial Sector Interfuel Substitution Estimates: 1960-79', Energy Economics, 8 (April 1986), pp. 74-89.
  • 'Macro-demand Analysis' in Volume I of Integrated Energy Planning: A Manual, Kuala Lumpur: Asian and Pacific Development Centre (1985), pp. 179-202. Since translated into Mandarin and published by the Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, 1987.
  • 'Further Evidence from Survey Data on Australian Manufacturing Price Changes' (with P Saunders), The Economic Record, 60 (March), pp. 68-83.
  • 'Price and Income Elasticities of Final Energy Demand in OECD Countries' (with A Mittelstadt) in L Waverman and C Watkins (eds), Adapting to Changing Energy Prices, Cambridge, Mass.: Oelgeschlager, Gunn & Hain (1984), pp. 111-130.
  • 'Some Thoughts on Energy Modelling and Policy in Australia', Economic Papers, 3 (1984), pp. 21-36.
  • 'Industrial Sector Interfuel Substitution following the First Major Oil Shock', Economics Letters, 12 (1983), pp. 377-382.
  • 'Excess Demand and Expectations Influences on Price Changes in Australian Manufacturing Industry', The Economic Record, 56 (1980), pp. 69-81.
  • 'Inflation in a Small, Fixed Exchange Rate, Open, Controlled Economy: A Model for New Zealand', in M Parkin and G Zis (eds), Inflation in Open Economies (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1976), pp. 259-279.
  • 'Inflationary Expectations in New Zealand: A Preliminary Study' (with M L King), New Zealand Economic Papers, 10 (1976), pp. 118-151.
  • 'A Preliminary Model of New Zealand's Post-War Inflation', The Economic Record, 50 (1974), pp. 57-76.
  • 'Prices, Labour Demand and Real Output in the New Zealand Economy: An Econometric Application', New Zealand Economic Papers, 7 (1973), pp. 25-47.
  • 'Simultaneous Equation Wage Determination in New Zealand', New Zealand Economics Papers, 6 (1972), pp. 29-51.

Working and other papers

  • 'Submission to the New Zealand House of Representatives' Finance and Expenditure Committee - Inquiry into the future monetary policy framework', July 2007, 6, available from pdf300KB here.
  • 'The Ups and Downs of New Zealand House Prices' (with C John McDermott and James Tremewan), Motu Working Papers 06-03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, July 2006, available from here.
  • 'An Australasian currency, New Zealand adopting the US dollar, or an independent monetary policy?', Australian Conference of Economists (refereed Conference Paper), Melbourne, September 2005, published in the Conference Proceedings (ISBN 07340 26080), available as CAMA Working Paper 21/2005, October 2005, from pdf300KB here.
  • 'Central Bank Governance: Common Elements or Different Models?', Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research Working Paper No. 20/2003, October 2003, available from pdf350KB here; revised as VUW School of Economics and Finance. Working Paper 2004/01, February 2004, available from aspf250KB here.