Are we there yet? Scenarios for the New Zealand health sector

Are we there yet? Scenarios for the New Zealand health sector

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17 April 2019 from 12.30 pm - 1.30 pm 17 Apr 2019 12:30 pm 17 Apr 2019 1:30 pm

Event venue: GBLT2, Lecture Theatre 2, Old Govt Building, Pipitea Campus

Speakers: Lesley Middleton & Malcolm Menzies

In 1997, a group of health sector leaders developed five scenarios for the New Zealand health sector in 2020.  In summary, the scenarios were:

  1. Muddling Through: ad hoc adjustments to current challenges;
  2. A Technocrat’s Dream: a technically highly-tuned and less politicised version of the present (1997) system;
  3. Two Tiers: a two-tier system brought about by policy gridlock;
  4. Power to the People: a reframed health concept, resulting in partnerships across professions and the public, and across local and central government sectors;
  5. Positively Private and Global: a system driven by the introduction of private health care plans.

This seminar looks back at the extent to which the signals in these scenarios have come to pass, and whether they have been useful for decision-makers. We will also discuss how the scenario technique might continue to be applied to health foresight.

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